Thanks for keeping up the postings. At bare minimum, I will try to keep writing - let's stay persistent.
I lived in NH for 4 years during college and even voted in the NH primary once. If you watched the debates, you probably saw my alma mater, as St. Anselm has hosted the initial prinary debates for the last 30 or so years.
New Hampshire people have an independent streak - they like they idea that they do things differently than other places. In particular, they juxtapose themselves to Massachusetts, which has a strong reputation for party politics, and they "party" establishment being the norm. Real or perceived, NH voters tend to think of themselves as independent minded.
I think this means that Obama will beat Clinton, who appears to be establsihment, while Obama represents someone outside the established norm. There is a recent large influx of former Mass residents in southern NH (because of the insane Mass housing prices and taxes), which would give Clinto the traditional liberal base, but not enough to give her a clear victory.
On the Republican side, McCain plays well in NH because of the appearance of the Republican who is willing to step outside of party lines. Plus, his natural conservatism will play well. Romney has good exposure given his proximatey to NH, but McCain seems to being running over him, nonetheless, which does not bode well for Mitt.
Romney has run an interesting campaign. He won Massachusetts by breaking party ranks, He ran against the incumbant Republican governor in 2002, who was the epitome of the party hack. As soon as he entered he dethroned Billy Bulger, the ultimate Democratic party hack, from his position as President of UMass-Amherst and establsihed himself quickly as someone who was theultimate outsider, willing to defy party politics.
He has shifted his position to appear to be more mainstream conservative Republican, which his opponents have jumped on, because he move to the conservative side has created the appearance that he has changed sides on issues. His decline seems to be indicative of the idea that people like the independent minded candidate who is not strongly tied to party lines. I would say that he is done after Tuesday.
One last thing... I just got my first mp3 player and find myself in the dilemma regarding the availability of free music. How to I start a thread, as I would like to get everyone else's moral musing on the subject of mp3 downloads.
I was close in my predictions for NH. Supporters of Obama are arguing that the Monday polls which had him ahead were misleading and that many independent voters chose to jump in on the Republican side and vote for McCain (which I will probably do come Super Tuesday). Their spin right now is Obama closed a 20point deficit from a month ago, not that he lost a lead in the final day.
No amount of Hilary Clinto crying will ever convince me that she is sincere - I do not know why others appear to be fooled.
Second, I believe the effect of her crying is being overplayed by the media, largely because they have egg on their face for prematurely writing her obituary and are looking for some explanation for how she won -- while overlooking the most simple and obvious: her ground game was superior to Obama's and her GOT effort prevailed.
I'm sure some women changed their minds after seeing her cry, but I think she was seen as more sympathetic after the debates when it looked like two men were ganging up on a woman.
While I agree that McCain took independent votes from Obama, I don't think it was significant enough for two reasons: 1) McCain was expected to draw indie votes in NH, and 2) the majority of indies still voted in the Dem primary (given that NH is primarily independent and the Dem vote count was about 20 percent higher than the GOP).
I have been waffling in my support, but Edwards looked too opportunistic and mean-spirited during the debate, and I am still uneasy about Obama's lack of experience.
Hillary showed true grit and resolve and has galvanized my support for her. I'm backing her all the way.
There are very little circumstances in which I would support the senator from New York. I have grave concerns about the level of corruption in the Clinton Administration in terms of the issues with China, Whitewater, and the pardons at the end of the term. To be frank, I do not care about the sex scandal and I thought she handles the situation well. The pattern of corruption seems to be pervaisive in the Washington establishment, as I feel strongly that Bush adminsitartion, may also have levels of undo influence in policy decisions. I really want someone who starts with the appearance of being above the fray - Obama seems "cleaner" than the rest of the Democrats.
It was opportunistic for her to cry as a central criticism had been her likability. There is a pattern of opportunism in her background. Unfortunately, I probably would like some of her policy choices but an uncomfortable with the character of the person behind them.
Right now, if Ron Paul and Mike Huckaby opposed Hilary Clinton, I would be deciding at the polls. Right now, I will vote for McCain on character alone over anybody, but I think the Republicans are not smart enough to forward him as their candidate. I would vote for any other Democrat, other than Mrs. Clinton, over any other Republican (other than McCain).
For the record, I would probably vote for any other woman, like Nancy Pelosi, over Hilary Clinton.
I wish we were at Murphy's or the coffee shop, as this would be quite a passionate discussion!
Paul and Huckabee? Really? Have you been hearing what they're digging up on these two (esp. Ron Paul)? And you think they have a better moral compass than Clinton?
Do you think it is a fair to hold Hillary responsible for Bill's poor judgments?
Warren said: "Do you think it is a fair to hold Hillary responsible for Bill's poor judgments?"
Does this mean that you don't think its fair for me to hold Hillary responsible for my poor judgement. Truth is ... I've been doing just that for a long time now. Frankly, I like to blame her for EVERYTHING that requires blame!
6 comments:
Here are my thoughts...
Thanks for keeping up the postings. At bare minimum, I will try to keep writing - let's stay persistent.
I lived in NH for 4 years during college and even voted in the NH primary once. If you watched the debates, you probably saw my alma mater, as St. Anselm has hosted the initial prinary debates for the last 30 or so years.
New Hampshire people have an independent streak - they like they idea that they do things differently than other places. In particular, they juxtapose themselves to Massachusetts, which has a strong reputation for party politics, and they "party" establishment being the norm. Real or perceived, NH voters tend to think of themselves as independent minded.
I think this means that Obama will beat Clinton, who appears to be establsihment, while Obama represents someone outside the established norm. There is a recent large influx of former Mass residents in southern NH (because of the insane Mass housing prices and taxes), which would give Clinto the traditional liberal base, but not enough to give her a clear victory.
On the Republican side, McCain plays well in NH because of the appearance of the Republican who is willing to step outside of party lines. Plus, his natural conservatism will play well. Romney has good exposure given his proximatey to NH, but McCain seems to being running over him, nonetheless, which does not bode well for Mitt.
Romney has run an interesting campaign. He won Massachusetts by breaking party ranks, He ran against the incumbant Republican governor in 2002, who was the epitome of the party hack. As soon as he entered he dethroned Billy Bulger, the ultimate Democratic party hack, from his position as President of UMass-Amherst and establsihed himself quickly as someone who was theultimate outsider, willing to defy party politics.
He has shifted his position to appear to be more mainstream conservative Republican, which his opponents have jumped on, because he move to the conservative side has created the appearance that he has changed sides on issues. His decline seems to be indicative of the idea that people like the independent minded candidate who is not strongly tied to party lines. I would say that he is done after Tuesday.
One last thing... I just got my first mp3 player and find myself in the dilemma regarding the availability of free music. How to I start a thread, as I would like to get everyone else's moral musing on the subject of mp3 downloads.
For the political junkies...
I was close in my predictions for NH. Supporters of Obama are arguing that the Monday polls which had him ahead were misleading and that many independent voters chose to jump in on the Republican side and vote for McCain (which I will probably do come Super Tuesday). Their spin right now is Obama closed a 20point deficit from a month ago, not that he lost a lead in the final day.
No amount of Hilary Clinto crying will ever convince me that she is sincere - I do not know why others appear to be fooled.
First, a question: sincere about what?
Second, I believe the effect of her crying is being overplayed by the media, largely because they have egg on their face for prematurely writing her obituary and are looking for some explanation for how she won -- while overlooking the most simple and obvious: her ground game was superior to Obama's and her GOT effort prevailed.
I'm sure some women changed their minds after seeing her cry, but I think she was seen as more sympathetic after the debates when it looked like two men were ganging up on a woman.
While I agree that McCain took independent votes from Obama, I don't think it was significant enough for two reasons: 1) McCain was expected to draw indie votes in NH, and 2) the majority of indies still voted in the Dem primary (given that NH is primarily independent and the Dem vote count was about 20 percent higher than the GOP).
I have been waffling in my support, but Edwards looked too opportunistic and mean-spirited during the debate, and I am still uneasy about Obama's lack of experience.
Hillary showed true grit and resolve and has galvanized my support for her. I'm backing her all the way.
There are very little circumstances in which I would support the senator from New York. I have grave concerns about the level of corruption in the Clinton Administration in terms of the issues with China, Whitewater, and the pardons at the end of the term. To be frank, I do not care about the sex scandal and I thought she handles the situation well. The pattern of corruption seems to be pervaisive in the Washington establishment, as I feel strongly that Bush adminsitartion, may also have levels of undo influence in policy decisions. I really want someone who starts with the appearance of being above the fray - Obama seems "cleaner" than the rest of the Democrats.
It was opportunistic for her to cry as a central criticism had been her likability. There is a pattern of opportunism in her background. Unfortunately, I probably would like some of her policy choices but an uncomfortable with the character of the person behind them.
Right now, if Ron Paul and Mike Huckaby opposed Hilary Clinton, I would be deciding at the polls. Right now, I will vote for McCain on character alone over anybody, but I think the Republicans are not smart enough to forward him as their candidate. I would vote for any other Democrat, other than Mrs. Clinton, over any other Republican (other than McCain).
For the record, I would probably vote for any other woman, like Nancy Pelosi, over Hilary Clinton.
I wish we were at Murphy's or the coffee shop, as this would be quite a passionate discussion!
Peace.
Paul and Huckabee? Really? Have you been hearing what they're digging up on these two (esp. Ron Paul)? And you think they have a better moral compass than Clinton?
Do you think it is a fair to hold Hillary responsible for Bill's poor judgments?
Warren said: "Do you think it is a fair to hold Hillary responsible for Bill's poor judgments?"
Does this mean that you don't think its fair for me to hold Hillary responsible for my poor judgement. Truth is ... I've been doing just that for a long time now. Frankly, I like to blame her for EVERYTHING that requires blame!
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